Senator Hillary Clinton’s under-performance in Indiana and North Carolina has left her in a predicament. Only one scenario remains in which her candidacy continues, and even that would just barely get her into the range where the addition of sanctioned Michigan and Florida would make a difference.
In the six remaining entities, Clinton appears to have the inside track in West Virginia (May 13th), Kentucky (May 20th) and Puerto Rico (June 1st). Barack Obama has clear leads in Oregon (May 20th), Montana and South Dakota (both June 3rd). Clinton must hold Obama to 54% in his three states AND top 60% in her victories. Both are formidable tasks and will unlikely happen. To further complicate matters for Clinton, expect to see uncommitted Super Delegates now falling in line behind Obama, in order to side with the perceived winner.
It is now probable that Barack Obama will win the nomination without a detrimental floor fight at the Democratic National Convention. Simply matching his previous performances in similar states should give him the numbers he needs to clinch overall victory even if he does win only half of the remaining contests. This marathon battle finally appears to be nearing an end.
Senator Hillary Clinton won the hotly contested Indiana primary and lost to Barack Obama in North Carolina. Clinton scored 52.5% of the Hoosier State vote, but needed to get closer to 56% in order to neutralize Obama’s bigger win in the Tar Heel State. The Illinois Senator captured 56.1% of the closed Democratic primary vote, compared to Clinton’s 41.7%. She needed to be closer to 46% in North Carolina to hold her ground in the national delegate count. When adding the sanctioned states of Michigan and Florida to the mix, Clinton appears to have lost a net of six delegates as a result of last night’s voting, and now trails Obama by 16 delegates when all the states and territories are tabulated. Looking at the sanctioned delegate totals, Obama has pulled to within 217 delegates of attaining the adjusted 2,025 committed votes to claim the nomination.
Six primary entities remain. Clinton is favored next week (May 13th) in West Virginia. She also needs to score a bigger win in Kentucky on May 20th than Obama does in Oregon on the same night. Puerto Rico, with 63 delegates at stake on June 1st, then becomes Clinton’s final “must win” test. Beginning with the New Hampshire primary, every time the former First Lady has had her back up against the wall, she has responded with key wins. Aside from the Granite State, Texas, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and now Indiana are all states where a loss could have meant the end of her campaign. At the end of the primary season (Montana and South Dakota on June 3rd are the last states to vote, and both projected to give Obama sizable majorities) Clinton must be in a position where adding Florida and Michigan puts her over the top. Failing to do so means Obama could then capture the necessary outstanding Super Delegates he needs to close out the nomination.
Saturday’s Democratic primary on the island of Guam did not turn out as expected. Despite Barack Obama emphasizing his island background as a way to connect with the territory’s voters, Hillary Clinton still managed to fight to a draw.
The vote was open only to US citizens who were registered as Democrats, so the total turnout, attracting just over 4,500 people, was low. Obama’s dominance in some of the other territories, 90% of the vote in the Virgin Islands and 64% among Democrats Abroad, led many to believe the he would rack up an equally significant percentage in Guam. The Illinois Senator outpolled Clinton by only seven votes, 2,264 to 2,257. Each candidate won three delegates and three others remained uncommitted.
So what are the implications of the Guam outcome for Indiana and North Carolina? Little similarity exists among these three groups of voters, so last Saturday’s result is an unlikely predictor for today’s critical Indiana and North Carolina primaries. Still, Saturday’s result does give the former First Lady and her supporters at least a psychological boost. Most polls show Clinton leading in Indiana and running ever closer to Obama in North Carolina. We will know much more later tonight.
New North Carolina and Indiana Democratic presidential polls have just been released—all completed before the Rev. Jeremiah Wright’s speech in Washington earlier this week. As has been the history of this campaign, pollsters continue to show conflicting results.
In Indiana, the latest must-win state for Hillary Clinton, new data again reveals different leaders. The Gauge Market Research Company, an Indiana polling firm, stakes Barack Obama to a 49-44% lead. This poll, it is important to remember, was taken April 23-24th, almost a week before Wright’s speech. In a survey released five days later, Clinton claimed a 50-42% lead. The latter poll was conducted by Public Policy Polling, a North Carolina firm whose numbers were woeful in Pennsylvania. PPP actually predicted that Obama would win PA. Clinton, as we now know, went on to score a 55-45% Keystone State victory.
Polling variances are also present in North Carolina. Survey USA, in a study released April 29th, has Obama leading in the Tarheel State 49-44%, a number much closer than presented in previous data. Rasmussen Reports, also publicizing results on the same day, places Obama with a more comfortable 51-37% advantage.
Remember, Clinton must win Indiana and close the gap in North Carolina to continue her quest for the nomination. These polls indicate she is in range to achieve that goal.
A new poll shows Al Franken falling back in his quest to unseat Minnesota Republican Senator Norm Coleman. According to a newly-released statewide Rasmussen Reports poll, Coleman has jumped into a 50-43% lead over Franken. Though this is still an obviously close race, the trends are now solidly heading in the Senator’s direction.
The money count is also looking more favorable for Coleman. Though Franken has raised over $9.3 million for the race, he has just $3.5 million in the bank with a $182,000 debt according to the first quarter 2008 financial disclosure figures just released. Coleman has obtained a bit less, $8.7 million, but has just about double Franken’s cash-on-hand total, $6.9 million.
The Minnesota Senate race is pivotal for both parties. With Republicans poised to lose a seat in Virginia, risking the key open states of Colorado and New Mexico, and with incumbents in tough battles in New Hampshire and Alaska, Minnesota could be the state that opens the door to a Democratic super majority (60 votes).
If Coleman holds, the Republicans will be able to sustain most filibusters. If he doesn’t, the Democrats could be on their way to total control of the US Government.
Now that the Pennsylvania primary is complete and Hillary Clinton’s strong performance kept her campaign alive, attention now turns to the final nine voting entities. Polling and voter history tells us that Clinton is favored in Indiana, West Virginia, and Kentucky, and Barack Obama has the advantage in Guam, North Carolina, Oregon, Montana, and South Dakota.
But what about Puerto Rico? With 63 delegates at stake, the island commonwealth ranks as the fourth largest remaining delegate block, voting on June 1, 2008. North Carolina, with 134 delegates, is the largest place still on the board, followed by Indiana with 84 convention votes, and Oregon at 65.
Since this is the first meaningful mainland election that has been open to Puerto Rico voters, it is difficult to project how the two candidates will fare. Clinton has run very well among mainland Hispanic voters, but will that translate to an equally strong performance in the Caribbean? Obama has scored big victories in the other territories, but does that influence these 4 million-plus commonwealth residents?
With little voting history and unproven polling data, it may be anyone’s guess as to the eventual outcome in June. One thing is certain, however, the Puerto Rico votes will be among the most important cast in this presidential election.
The long-awaited Pennsylvania primary is occurring today and all of the late polls suggest a Hillary Clinton victory.
Three surveys were taken between April 17-20, all with sample sizes between 600 and 625 likely Democratic Keystone State primary voters. Zogby International and Mason-Dixon both forecast the race in the same range. Zogby showed Clinton ahead 48-42%, and Mason-Dixon confirmed the results, tallying 48-43%. The American Research Group detected a much larger advantage for the former First Lady, 54-41%, over Barack Obama.
With the trends heading Clinton’s way in Pennsylvania, gaining delegates become more important than her margin of victory. Pennsylvania has a total of 187 delegates; 158 of whom are pledged and 29 in the Super Delegate category. At the very least, the New York Senator must get within the range where adding the two sanctioned states of Michigan and Florida puts her into the overall lead. This means gaining at least 20 net delegates in the remaining ten states and territories, of which Pennsylvania is the largest voting entity.
After today, the campaign next heads to Guam on May 3rd (9 delegates – 4 pledged/5 Super) and then to North Carolina (134 delegates – 115 pledged/19 Super) on May 6th. West Virginia (39 delegates – 28 pledged/11 Super) follows on May 13th.
National media sources are overflowing with new polling data in anticipation of next Tuesday’s Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary. But, with so many polls to choose from – most with widely varying results – how do you determine which is correct?
Here are some of the numbers from surveys taken just this week: the LA Times says Hillary Clinton leads Barack Obama 46-41%; Survey USA has the former First Lady ahead by 14 points, 56-38%; Rasmussen Reports (50-41%) and Strategic Vision (49-40%) give Clinton a nine point lead. Contradicting everyone, however, is the North Carolina research firm of Public Policy Polling which claims that Obama actually has a three point Keystone State lead, 45-42%. Thus, it’s hard to detect a clear pattern among such disparate data. Also, keep in mind that the polling has not been particularly accurate in the Democratic race this year.
Voting history and trends from similar states might be a better predictor as to what will happen in Pennsylvania on April 22nd. Located among such places as New York, New Jersey, and Ohio, all states won by Sen. Clinton, it is most conceivable that she will take Pennsylvania too, and by a healthy margin. Doing so is critical to her ability to remain competitive for the nomination. The nine post-Pennsylvania states will then take center stage and could well determine if Obama wins the nomination or a brokered national convention ensues.
Two new polls were released yesterday, one taken before Sen. Barack Obama’s disparaging remarks about Pennsylvania’s small towns and communities were uttered, and the other after the comments became known.
Comparing the results of the two surveys paints a dramatic picture. Before saying that Pennsylvania small town residents cling to their guns and religion as an expression of bitterness over job loss, Susquehanna Polling & Research, a Harrisburg, PA firm, showed Obama pulling to within three points of Sen. Hillary Clinton, 40-37%. The study was conducted from April 6-10 of 500 likely Democratic voters and has an error factor of 4.38%. In the American Research Group’s (ARG) 600-sample poll (4% error factor) conducted April 11-13, Clinton sky rockets to an overwhelming 20 point lead, 57-37%.
Clearly the latter survey is a reaction to the Obama comments, since his statement is the only major change factor occurring between the two polls. In order to obtain a more accurate damage assessment, it is wise to wait for further data since allowing more time to pass better determines voters’ true sentiments. Undoubtedly, Obama will suffer serious harm, but it is unlikely the 20-point margin will persist over a sustained period. Pennsylvania continues to be a must-win state for Sen. Clinton, and it is clear that the recent developments will help her Keystone State effort.
Recently, John McCain’s national campaign spokesman indicated that the Arizona Senator would likely accept the $84 million in federal money the government has allocated for the post-convention general election campaign. Some believe this is an admission he can’t raise the necessary dollars from supporters, but such an analysis isn’t quite accurate.
Look for the eventual Democratic nominee to accept the money, too. Though the Democrats currently have a distinct financial advantage over McCain, becoming part of the federal system won’t neutralize their resource lead. While true that both campaigns will be forced to adhere to the spending limits that are tied to taxpayer financing, such action does not limit the two national parties from raising party building and independent expenditure funds, nor does it prevent outside 527 organizations from participating.
Under the federal finance scenario, the Democrats can actually improve upon their already favorable position because liberal activists will actively support the 527 committees. Conversely, McCain, who for years has been a vocal opponent of such entities, will be forced by his own past rhetoric to denounce any supporter for contributing to the outside groups. This means that the chief beneficiary of the campaign reform that Sen McCain has so prominently advocated throughout his career will, in reality, be his presidential opponent.