“Over the course of three years, the nation’s construction industry has turned upside down,” said Associated Builders and Contractors (ABC) Chief Economist Anirban Basu. “Three years ago, residential construction was entering its worst slump in generations, with housing starts collapsing and many homebuilders failing. Nonresidential construction, by contrast, was still in the midst of its growth cycle; one that would last well into 2008.
“Today, residential building is now in expansion mode, with the value of residential construction rising in recent months, including 4.2 percent in October,” said Basu. “However, nonresidential building construction remains very much in the midst of its cyclical downturn, falling 10.5 percent on a year-over-year basis.
“Given still tight credit and a weak labor market, building construction is not positioned for recovery in the near term,” said Basu. “Certain forms of nonresidential construction have held up relatively well, including segments susceptible to public financing and public policy, such as highway/street construction and sewage/waste disposal-related construction. However, it remains to be seen whether those subsectors that were down for the month will continue to slide.
“One of the most striking aspects of the construction spending report is the reversal of fortune in the category of manufacturing-related construction. This segment has been one of the primary stabilizing segments of nonresidential construction for many months, but with the slowing of refinery-related construction, that segment is now in decline. ABC predicts a significant decline in manufacturing-related construction next year,” said Basu.