ABC’s Construction Backlog Indicator is the only economic indicator that reflects the amount of work that will be performed by commercial and industrial construction contractors in the months ahead. The Construction Confidence Index is a diffusion index that signals construction contractors’ expectations for sales, profit margins and staffing levels. View the methodology for both indicators. 

 

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From 1997 through 2013 (the latest year for which annual data are available), the value added by the private construction industry as a percentage of national gross domestic product (GDP) declined from a high of 6.14% (in 1997 and 1998) to a low of 3.69% in 2011 and then rose to the still-too-low 3.73% in 2013. Although this is an accurate look at the sector, it understates the impact of the construction industry on the economy.

The national construction unemployment rate has generally reflected the fortunes of the construction industry. The national construction unemployment rate fell from 2004 through 2006 then began to rise in 2007 and jumped sharply in 2008 and 2009. Since 2010, there has been a slow, gradual improvement. December’s 8.3% unemployment rate is the lowest December rate since 2005’s 8.2% rate.

The construction industry has shown evidence of recovery and appears to be on a mild upward trajectory despite occasional backsliding. In 2014, construction spending for all the major areas rose faster than the rise in construction costs. Last year also marked the fourth year in a row that construction employment grew and the largest annual advance in construction employment since 2005.

Measuring employment and unemployment would seem to be straightforward. However, it turns out to be a little more complicated than it first appears. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) produces the employment statistics for the United States based on a monthly survey conducted by the Census Bureau known as the Current Population Survey (CPS).

Bad weather often typifies February across much of the country and this February’s weather was particularly harsh. The not seasonally adjusted (NSA) construction unemployment rate for the country often peaks around February and the nation appears to be on track for that pattern this year. The February construction unemployment rate for the country along with estimated rates for 34 states increased over their respective January rates.

March, as is to be expected, provided better weather than February, though some parts of the country were hit with severe storms, including spring snow storms. This resulted in a monthly decrease in the March not seasonally adjusted (NSA) construction unemployment rate for the country and in the estimated construction unemployment rates for 43 states.

The United States economy, along with construction, struggled through the first quarter as the nation was battered with unusually harsh weather. As of the May 29 U.S. Department of Commerce report, real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) fell 0.7% at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). The June 1 construction spending report showed that nominal (current) dollar construction spending was down 0.5% (SAAR), but on a not seasonally adjusted basis was up 3.7% compared to first quarter 2014.

The non-seasonally adjusted construction unemployment rate for the country and 40 states declined in May, while the rate for one state (South Carolina) remained unchanged from April. Today’s report provides further evidence that construction and the broader U.S. economy appear to have rebounded from the unusually brutal winter. On an annual basis, construction unemployment rates for 44 of the 50 states fell in May 2015 compared to May 2014. The construction unemployment rate for two states—North Dakota and Utah—were unchanged.

Construction employment stalled nationally on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis in June. However, as expected, not seasonally adjusted (NSA) employment increased from May. The result was that 38 states experienced a decline in their estimated NSA construction unemployment rate.

Overall employment and construction employment improved nationally in July on a seasonally adjusted (SA) basis. Meanwhile, as would be expected, not seasonally adjusted (NSA) construction employment increased from June. This resulted in 43 states posting a monthly decline in their estimated NSA construction unemployment rate.

Nationally, the construction employment picture has continued to improve from last year. The not seasonally adjusted (NSA) construction unemployment rates for the country and 45 states were down in August on a year-over-year basis. For the first eight months of the year, construction added 113,000 seasonally adjusted (SA) jobs. At the same time, NSA jobs increased by 221,000 from August 2014 to August 2015.

September proved to be a good month for construction unemployment rates. The not seasonally adjusted (NSA) construction unemployment rates for the country and 48 states were down in September on a year-over-year basis. For the first three quarters of the year, construction added 121,000 seasonally adjusted (SA) jobs. At the same time, NSA jobs increased by 199,000 from September 2014 to September 2015.

October was another positive month for construction and construction unemployment rates around much of the country. Year-over-year, not seasonally adjusted (NSA) construction unemployment rates for the country and 30 states were lower in October this year. Year to date, construction has added 159,000 seasonally adjusted (SA) jobs throughout the country. Meanwhile, NSA jobs nationally increased by 228,000 from October 2014 to October 2015. Additionally, SA construction spending in October increased 1 percent from September according to theCensus Bureau’s Dec. 1 release. Year-to-date NSA construction spending as of October was up 10.7 percent.

As noted in The Importance of Construction to State Economies, the importance of the construction industry to the national and state economies stretches beyond the direct impact of construction activity. The U.S. economy benefits from purchases related to, but not directly included in, construction projects, such as equipment for a new factory, furniture for an office or residential property, and appliances for commercial and residential units. Based on conservative estimates, these additional purchases add at least 2 percent to 3 percent to the impact of the construction industry on the economy.

Nonresidential construction spending fell 1 percent on a monthly basis in November, but has still managed to expand 4 percent on a year-over-year basis according to the January 2nd release from the U.S. Census Bureau. Spending for the month totaled $617 billion on a seasonally adjusted, annualized basis. Moreover, the government revised the October spending figure up from $611.8 billion to $622.9 billion. 

The U.S. construction industry added 48,000 jobs in December, including 22,800 jobs in nonresidential construction, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) preliminary estimate released Jan. 9. November’s estimate was unchanged in this release, remaining at 20,000 net new construction jobs, but nonresidential construction’s November jobs figure was upwardly revised to 7,100 jobs.

Nonresidential construction spending expanded 0.4 percent on a monthly basis in December 2014, according to the Feb. 2 release from the U.S. Census Bureau. Spending for the month totaled $627.1 billion on a seasonally adjusted, annualized basis, 5.9 percent higher than December 2013. The government also upwardly revised November’s spending estimate from $617 billion to $624.8 billion and October’s figure from $623 billion to $627.4 billion.

Nonresidential construction spending fell 2 percent in January, which is the largest setback to spending since January 2014, according to the March 2 release from the U.S. Census Bureau. However, at $614.1 billion on a seasonally adjusted, annualized basis, nonresidential construction spending still is 4.8 percent higher than one year ago. In addition, the spending estimate for December 2014 was revised downward from $627.1 billion to $627 billion and November’s figure was revised from $624.8 billion to $621.9 billion. 

The U.S. construction industry added 29,000 jobs in February, according to the March 6 Bureau of Labor Statistics preliminary estimate. In addition, January’s construction estimate was revised upward from 39,000 to 49,000 net new jobs. Nonresidential construction added 12,000 net new jobs in February, with nonresidential specialty trade contractors and nonresidential building adding jobs while the heavy and civil engineering segment reduced employment.

The largest monthly gain in petroleum prices in over three years caused construction materials prices to expand 0.4 percent in February, ending a six-month streak when prices failed to rise, according to the March 13 producer price index release by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. On a year-over-year basis, construction input prices fell 3.9 percent. Nonresidential construction input prices also rose 0.4 percent on a monthly basis and 4.9 percent on a yearly basis.

Blame it on the weather – that is what many economists have been doing over the past two months as economic data continue to disappoint. Retail sales, durable goods orders and other categories have not been as strong as anticipated. 

Nonresidential construction added 5,000 net new jobs in March, with nonresidential specialty trade contractors leading the way by contributing 4,400 new jobs, according  to the April 3 Bureau of Labor Statistics preliminary estimate. As a whole, the U.S. construction industry lost 1,000 jobs in March, while February’s construction employment estimate (29,000 new jobs) was unrevised. The residential sector also regressed in March, losing 2,800 jobs.

Prices for inputs to construction industries expanded 0.8 percent in March, the largest monthly increase in more than two years, according to the April 14 producer price index release by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Prices have now expanded for two consecutive months after declining during the prior six; however input prices are down 3.6 percent on a year-over-year basis. March marks the fourth consecutive month year-over-year input prices have declined, the longest such streak since 2009. Crude petroleum prices fell 4 percent in March and have fallen in eight of the previous nine months.

Nonresidential construction spending has now declined during each of the year’s first three months, according to a May 1 report by the U.S. Census Bureau.

The U.S. construction industry added 45,000 jobs in April according to the May 8 Bureau of Labor Statistics preliminary estimate. March’s estimate was revised downward from -1,000 to -9,000 net new jobs. Nonresidential construction employment increased by 12,400 jobs in April, with nonresidential specialty trade contractors leading the way with 20,200 new jobs. Nonresidential building employment plummeted for the month, losing 7,800 jobs. The residential sector bounced back in April, adding 23,600 jobs.  

ABC construction economic releases are published according to this schedule in 2023

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