Construction Spending and Employment: History and Forecast Terms and Sources
Source: Census Bureau Value of Construction Put in Place Survey (VIP) Annual Historical Data (Annual Total Table)
Total Private Employment
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), Current Population Survey (CPS), Table 42
Excludes the self-employed. Only annual data are available.
Construction Spending Forecast Assumptions
Starting with the annual construction spending data for 2017 ($1.23 trillion), the estimate assumes 4 percent growth (to $1.28 trillion) for 2018, 4 percent on top of that (to $1.33 trillion) for 2019, 3 percent growth above the 2019 construction spending level (to $1.37 trillion) for 2020 and 3 percent growth above 2020 construction spending (to $1.42 trillion) for 2021.
Employment Demand Forecast
Based on a model developed by Markstein Advisors to estimate total private construction employment demanded, excluding the self-employed, derived from the amount of construction spending.
Employment Demand Forecast With Additional Infrastructure Spending
Based on the same model developed by Markstein Advisors to estimate total private
construction employment demanded, excluding the self-employed, based on construction spending. According to the model, every $1 billion in extra construction spending generates an average of at least 6,300 construction jobs.
The employment projections assume that the administration’s $1.5 trillion proposed
infrastructure plan, if enacted, will result in $50 billion in additional construction spending in 2019 on top of the baseline construction spending forecast; $150 billion additional spending in 2020; and $200 billion more in 2021. Thus, demand for additional construction workers above the baseline estimate for each year would be 323,000 in 2019, 960,000 more workers in 2020 and 1.3 million more workers in 2021.